1, 2009 Review of the economical operation
A variety of statistical data from the current point of view, machine-building industry has stabilized to pick up, but there is still an indication of instability. Outlook 2009 fourth quarter economic data and the “Shier Wu” planning readiness is the industry environment for the development is still “dangerous” “machine” in half, as long as the whole industry to seize the opportunity and strive hard to deal with properly, the industry is expected to continue to achieve stable and healthy development. Machine tool industry in the development of popular industry-wide impact of machine-building industry, analyze the situation of the industry helps us to clearly determine the movement of machine tool industry.
1.2009-year Machinery Industry Development features:
(1) The machine-building industry in 2009 achieved a steady growth, although the growth rate greater than the 2008 drop, but still faster growth. 2009 megascopic industrial output value a ~ 2.90% increase year on year in February, 1 May rose 6.31 percent, 1 to August rose 9.70 percent, the month in September grew 17.88% and the growth rate significantly increased, with growth in machine tool industry 8.44%.
(2) marketing more difficult, but the convergence of a more normal production and marketing. Nearly three years of rapid growth has stimulated production capacity expansion, and strengthen macro-control to market demand, a gradual return to normal, which gradually intensified the contradiction of rendering exceeding demand, sales more difficult; but most companies have interpreted various measures to actively strain, so industry-wide sales rate is motionless normal.
(3) a marked decline in efficiency and profited fell. Machinery Industry in 2009 1 June cumulative: total assets of the contribution rate of 9.31 percent, down 1.04 percentage points; cost margin 5.27%, down 1.22 percentage points; sales profit rate 4.97%, down 1.09 percentage points; to achieve Profit for the first time in nearly three years of negative growth, but year on year decline in the monthly reduced; 1 ~ 2 months increased by -25.81%, 1 ~ May grew -7.73% in August increased by 1 ~ -6.83% (including machine tools Industry Growth -11.88%).
(4) the export decline, the surplus reduction. 2009 1 August total exports of 121.809 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of -24.71%, total imports of 110.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of -23.53%, import and export surplus of 11.033 billion U.S. dollars. 2009 1 June cumulative trade surplus in 2008 than in the same period of 18.3 billion U.S. dollars.
(5) The output of major products continue to rise. 2009 1 August amounted included statistics express the output of major products in 2008 than in the same period in the majority of growth: large and medium tractors 163,118 units, up 18.72 percent; CNC machine tools 93335 Taiwan, up 10.40%; 71.34 million kW power generation equipment yuan, down 14.39 percent, although the decline, more and abroad, China’s total output of driving generating equipment is static highest in the world; 8.458 million vehicles, up 19.99%, of which 5.113 million cars, up 27.72%.
(6) The macro-control policy orientation are unlike, different in different development of the industry trend. Stable trend in the overall context of development, to electricians, heavy-duty mining, petrochemical major technology-founded general-purpose equipment manufacturing industry to continue to maintain a rapid growth; to the automotive and construction machinery, represented by transportation and construction machinery and equipment manufacturing as well as mainly for their twin internal combustion engine much slower manufacturing growth; while agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery industry grew significantly accelerated the development of other sectors were relatively stable.
2009 1 to August year on year growth rate of industrial output value of various industries: agricultural machinery industry, 22.71%, 2.50% internal combustion engine, engineering machinery 17.66%, instrumentation 4.00%, culture and office equipment declined by 7.27%, affected large general petrochemical 8.45 %, heavy mining machinery 15.76%, 8.44% machine tools, electrical appliances 7.21%, 11.16% common basic parts, food packaging machinery 20.85%, automobile industry, 7.26%, 27.59% other civilian machinery.
2. Data analysis of various key industries
Electric industry: power generation equipment representative products. In 2008 both the growth rate of output or have been created in the world. 2009 1 ~ 8 monthly output has reached 71.34 million kW. In its lead, power transmission equipment manufacturing industry has continued to Zou Wang, an increase of 11.29%.
Heavy Mining Machinery: Although the macro-control of some medium and small iron and steel, cement enterprises have great impact, but large-scale iron and steel and cement companied were not affected, but also accelerated the pace of bigger and strong, so the whole wanting for heavy mining equipment and the production and marketing situation has not were significantly affect, order to maintain a high level. 2009 1 to August industrial output value increased by 15.76%, higher than the industry average of 6 percentage points.
Agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery: the overall development continue to heat up. 2009 1 August total, agricultural machinery industrial output value increased by 22.71%, higher than the industry more than 12 percentage points; agricultural products, the representation of products – large and medium tractors, 1 ~ 8 monthly production of 15 million units, in the substantial growth in 2008, based on the further growth of 6.82% year on year, indicating strong support because of the country, “three rural” agricultural machinery industry has ushered in a spring. Food packaging machinery manufacturing industry has gradually picked up.
Machine tool industry: the growth rate continued to fall. 2009 1 August numbed industrial output value increased by 8.44%, but the following 2 points should cause great related: First, as imports rose faster, so domestic machine tool market share of 39.5% from 2005 to decline further in 2008 38.7%; second output of CNC machine tools since 2009, the growth rate cruel rapidly, 1 June cumulative increase of nearly three years has been more than 40% down to 18.61%.
3.2009 overall analysis of the year
Combination of factors, an overall analysis of the entire industry machinery industry in 2009 continue to maintain the same basic trend of steady development. Compared with 2008 the annual output overestimate and sales revenue will grow about 12% and profits will be a slight decline in export earnings will be reduced by 25%. And medium-sized tractors produced up to 25 million units, breaking the entered; power generation equipment production reached about 80 million kW; CNC machine tool production to nearly 13 million units; vehicle production more than 13 million, to achieve expected to grow by about 20% in early target; of these output of more than 7.6 million cars, an increase of 22% or more.
2, 2010, machine tool industry trend forecasting
1. Trends affecting the industry in 2010 Analysis of environmental factors
(1) from the macro-economic environment, 2010 will continue to maintain a relatively rapid GDP growth in 2010 is “Eleventh Five” plan the completion of the year, has 17 large, “Shier Wu” plan outlines the blueprint. Against this backdrop, the whole country was filled with enthusiasm and development. Based on estimated economic growth in 2010 will not be too low, GDP growth is expected in 2009 compared with about 8% of the increase will be close to 10%, of which the secondary industry will grow at more than 13%.
To ensure policy continuity and stability will be the Government’s macroeconomic regulation and control of the intoned. In 2008 macro-regulation achieved significant results, founded on the 2009 macro-economic situation continues to develop towards the target, the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control is increasingly apparent. Overall judgments, macro China Metal Processing Online Copyright steady growth of the economy is already in the period, this excellent difficult-won situation, it is necessary to prevent foster decline, and also to prevent over-investment, focusing on short-term action to prevent the investment in the economic situation has become understanding of the mainstream view. Is expected to maintain the policy continuity and stability will be the 2010 Government in the economic macro-commanded work mood.
2010, total fixed asset investment growth will show a slow deceleration of the trend growth rate in 2009 will be 22.9% to 20%. In the scientific development, the transformation of economic growth under the guidance of new development ideas, over-reliance on investment-led approach to development under control. At present a serious overcapacity in some sectors in some areas of potential over-investment in fixed assets has been inhibited.
As I am retarded export growth, international trade surplus dropped sharply, trade frictions are increasing, coupled with appreciation of the renminbi, the 2009 export growth is expected to slow; the other hand, the state will adjust the export tax rebate policy, which will actually export enterprises received tax rebate accrue to help the enterprises to expand exports. Is expected to import and smuggled growth in 2010 will be held in 12% and 14% or so.
(2) from the machine-building industry operating environment, “the State Council on the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry planning” has been introduced, which will be the development of forging-building industry to create an enabling environment. “Revitalization Plan” is characterized by open objectives and strong orientation; focused, easy to focus; measures China Metal Processing Online Copyrigh